The Marriage Equality Pulse
A simple analysis of Google Trends to keep a watch on public sentiment leading up to the Australian marriage equality postal survey.

The pulse


Google Trends search sentiment in favour of 'vote yes' is:

%

in the last hour

%

in the last 24 hours

0%

in the last 7 days

Last data update AEDST GMT+11

The daily pulse chart


The hourly pulse chart

Hourly search intensity for 'vote yes' and 'vote no'


How it works


The Pulse measures the rate of Google searches for the phrases 'vote yes' and 'vote no' within Australia using the 'Google Trends' tool.

The share of 'vote yes' in this search intensity is the Pulse. A pulse above 50% means sentiment favours 'vote yes'. A pulse below 50% means sentiment favours 'vote no'.

The Pulse and the accompanying charts update every 10 minutes.

What it means


A similar analysis of Google search data predicted the outcome of the Irish marriage equality referendum in 2015. You can read that study here.

This kind of analysis is likely to have more predictive power closer to the date of a vote, as voter intent crystallises. It may not have much predictive power in the weeks and months before a vote. The absence of a defined 'voting day' for the Australian postal survey may dilute the predictive power of the Pulse.

Get involved


The Australian Government is pursuing an Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey to determine whether to allow parliamentary debate on marriage equality.

Marriage equality supporters need to make sure they do what they can to encourage people to VOTE YES.

You can help through your preferred campaign organisation, but if you don't belong to one you can jump on the Australian Marriage Equality campaign.

Donate to Australian Marriage Equality

Sign up to volunteer at yes.org.au